Are you intentionally using “counterfactual” here to distinguish from hypothetical? I’d say there are very few things for which hypothetical X isn’t far better than actual X. Fundamentally, details matter far more that we think, most of the failure is in the details, and we routinely ignore details in far-mode thinking about what could be.
Code you haven’t written yet is efficient, understandable, and bug-free. Systems of governance are free of corruption and petty dominance games. Your next team will have perfect management that understands the cost of impossible deadlines. Ok, even I can’t believe the last one. But the others are pretty common false beliefs.
It is very important that the threat of political revolutions exist – the fact that if the people get angry, they *will* overthrow rulers is the thing that keeps rulers in check. (This is relevant for countries as well as web forums and EA organizations)
But, actual revolutions are generally quite bad – they are very costly, and my impression is that a lot of the time they A) don’t actually successfully build something better than the thing they destroyed, B) the prospect of constant revolution makes it harder to build anything lasting.
So, it’s important for the threat of revolution to be real (to the point where if things get real bad you actually revolt even though it’s probably locally negative to do so). But, still, it’s better for all parties to fix things such that the threat doesn’t need to get carried out.
(I don’t have that solid a grasp on the difference between hypothetical vs counterfactual. The important point here is that IF the political situation doesn’t improve, THEN there will be a revolution)
Ah, I fully agree with this observation. I wonder how related it is to other cases where the actual underlying reality is less important than the perception of the possible. Stock markets may be another illustration of the concept—a given share in a company is, in the end, a claim on future cash flows until termination of the enterprise. But there’s such distance and uncertainty in that, that many stocks trade more on short-term perceptions than on long-term values, and many participants forget what the underlying security actually means.
(counterfactual means things that are known not to happen, hypothetical is for things that could turn out to happen. What would you have done if X (when ~X actually occurred) is counterfactual. What would you do if X (where X may or may not happen) is hypothetical. I asked because using “counterfactual” is somewhat specific and I wasn’t sure if you were using it in a technical meaning. Hypothetical (or “possible”) is the more common word colloquially. “possible revolutions are good, actual revolutions are bad” would have been less distracting on this front. Ok, sorry for long diversion from what could have been a thumbs-up react.)
Counterfactual revolutions are basically good, revolutions are basically bad
(The political sort of revolution, not the scientific sort)
Are you intentionally using “counterfactual” here to distinguish from hypothetical? I’d say there are very few things for which hypothetical X isn’t far better than actual X. Fundamentally, details matter far more that we think, most of the failure is in the details, and we routinely ignore details in far-mode thinking about what could be.
Code you haven’t written yet is efficient, understandable, and bug-free. Systems of governance are free of corruption and petty dominance games. Your next team will have perfect management that understands the cost of impossible deadlines. Ok, even I can’t believe the last one. But the others are pretty common false beliefs.
A more fleshed out version of my comment is:
It is very important that the threat of political revolutions exist – the fact that if the people get angry, they *will* overthrow rulers is the thing that keeps rulers in check. (This is relevant for countries as well as web forums and EA organizations)
But, actual revolutions are generally quite bad – they are very costly, and my impression is that a lot of the time they A) don’t actually successfully build something better than the thing they destroyed, B) the prospect of constant revolution makes it harder to build anything lasting.
So, it’s important for the threat of revolution to be real (to the point where if things get real bad you actually revolt even though it’s probably locally negative to do so). But, still, it’s better for all parties to fix things such that the threat doesn’t need to get carried out.
(I don’t have that solid a grasp on the difference between hypothetical vs counterfactual. The important point here is that IF the political situation doesn’t improve, THEN there will be a revolution)
Ah, I fully agree with this observation. I wonder how related it is to other cases where the actual underlying reality is less important than the perception of the possible. Stock markets may be another illustration of the concept—a given share in a company is, in the end, a claim on future cash flows until termination of the enterprise. But there’s such distance and uncertainty in that, that many stocks trade more on short-term perceptions than on long-term values, and many participants forget what the underlying security actually means.
(counterfactual means things that are known not to happen, hypothetical is for things that could turn out to happen. What would you have done if X (when ~X actually occurred) is counterfactual.
What would you do if X (where X may or may not happen) is hypothetical. I asked because using “counterfactual” is somewhat specific and I wasn’t sure if you were using it in a technical meaning. Hypothetical (or “possible”) is the more common word colloquially. “possible revolutions are good, actual revolutions are bad” would have been less distracting on this front. Ok, sorry for long diversion from what could have been a thumbs-up react.)