I suspect you won’t be able to estimate with small enough error bars to know whether the marginal increase in risk of infection by one plane ride is more or less than the reduction in risk by the more comfortable and (presumably) less metropolitan place in Arizona. My intuition is that if you compare it to any major coastal city, you’re better off in AZ, even considering travel risk. Even more so if this is a change from urban to low-density suburban living and you do actually semi-quarantine (only go out rarely, and only at times of low crowds).
IMO, the main problem with flying is the airports, which have a high density of people who’ve recently been at a large variety of places. If you can arrange to fly to and from regional airports without international flights, that’s probably a plus.
All that said, I still rate the overall risk for healthy young to middle-aged US urbanites to be fairly low. I recommend most of your optimization to be on the comfort and short-term-panic-survivability side of things, more than the minimization of exposure to the virus. For that criterion, AZ seems like a clear win for you.
I suspect you won’t be able to estimate with small enough error bars to know whether the marginal increase in risk of infection by one plane ride is more or less than the reduction in risk by the more comfortable and (presumably) less metropolitan place in Arizona. My intuition is that if you compare it to any major coastal city, you’re better off in AZ, even considering travel risk. Even more so if this is a change from urban to low-density suburban living and you do actually semi-quarantine (only go out rarely, and only at times of low crowds).
IMO, the main problem with flying is the airports, which have a high density of people who’ve recently been at a large variety of places. If you can arrange to fly to and from regional airports without international flights, that’s probably a plus.
All that said, I still rate the overall risk for healthy young to middle-aged US urbanites to be fairly low. I recommend most of your optimization to be on the comfort and short-term-panic-survivability side of things, more than the minimization of exposure to the virus. For that criterion, AZ seems like a clear win for you.