Interestingly, biologists have named the phases of the bacterial growth curve: lag phase, exponential phase, stationary phase, death phase. I suspect that having names for these phases helps people think more concretely. We could just say it’s a variant of logistic growth, and give some sort of equation for it. But that wouldn’t make it nearly as easy to talk or think about as naming the phases. Early in the pandemic, we could have been saying “we’re in the lag phase of the pandemic, but the exponential phase is coming.” Likewise, you’re worried we’re in the lag phase of inflation, and that the exponential phase is coming.
I wonder if we can just start talking like this. We know these trends are real, and perhaps the problem is that we talk about them as if they required an education in mathematics to understand. Instead, perhaps the bits of the graph just need some nice handy labels.
Your graph also illustrates perfectly why I find this an example of semistable equilibrium as explained in this article. It even looks like a cliff face, although it is inverted. There is a point at which the lag phase changes and becomes the exponential phase. As long as the correct action is taken before this point, the exponential phase can be avoided; e.g. take the petri dish out of the incubator and put bleach in it. This would be equivalent to the chicken player stopping his car before the cliff edge.
Yep! On the flip side, biologists know that it’s important to passage cells before they enter the death phase, which means splitting them into multiple lower-concentration plates. Otherwise, the cells can be irretrievably damaged by overcrowding.
Interestingly, biologists have named the phases of the bacterial growth curve: lag phase, exponential phase, stationary phase, death phase. I suspect that having names for these phases helps people think more concretely. We could just say it’s a variant of logistic growth, and give some sort of equation for it. But that wouldn’t make it nearly as easy to talk or think about as naming the phases. Early in the pandemic, we could have been saying “we’re in the lag phase of the pandemic, but the exponential phase is coming.” Likewise, you’re worried we’re in the lag phase of inflation, and that the exponential phase is coming.
I wonder if we can just start talking like this. We know these trends are real, and perhaps the problem is that we talk about them as if they required an education in mathematics to understand. Instead, perhaps the bits of the graph just need some nice handy labels.
Your graph also illustrates perfectly why I find this an example of semistable equilibrium as explained in this article. It even looks like a cliff face, although it is inverted. There is a point at which the lag phase changes and becomes the exponential phase. As long as the correct action is taken before this point, the exponential phase can be avoided; e.g. take the petri dish out of the incubator and put bleach in it. This would be equivalent to the chicken player stopping his car before the cliff edge.
Yep! On the flip side, biologists know that it’s important to passage cells before they enter the death phase, which means splitting them into multiple lower-concentration plates. Otherwise, the cells can be irretrievably damaged by overcrowding.
A lesson for humans as the population continues to increase.