Not particularly. I use 4 but with P(W|S) = P(W) which renders it valid. (We’re not talking about two side-by-side universes, but about prior probabilities on physical law plus a presumption of survival.)
You mean you use method 2. Except you don’t, or you would come to the same conclusion that I do. Are you claiming that P(W|S)= P(W)? Ok, I suspect you may be applying Nick Bostrom’s version of observer selection: hold the probability of each possible version of the universe fixed independent of the number of observers, then divide that probability equally amongst the observers. Well, that approach is BS whenever the number of observers differs between possible universes, since if you imagine aliens in the universe but causally separate, the probabilities would depend on their existence.
Also, does it really make sense to you, intuitively, that you should get a different result given two actually existing universes compared to two possible universes?
This could only reflect uncertainty that anthropic reasoning was valid. If you were certain anthropic reasoning were valid (I’m sure not!) then you would make no such update. In practice, after surviving a few hundred rounds of quantum suicide, would further survivals really seem to call for alternative explanations?
As I pointed out earlier, if there was even a tiny chance of the machine being broken in such a way as to appear to be working, that probability would dominate sooner or later.
One last thing: if you really believe that annihilational events are irrelevant, please do not produce any GAIs until you come to your senses.
Not particularly. I use 4 but with P(W|S) = P(W) which renders it valid. (We’re not talking about two side-by-side universes, but about prior probabilities on physical law plus a presumption of survival.)
You mean you use method 2. Except you don’t, or you would come to the same conclusion that I do. Are you claiming that P(W|S)= P(W)? Ok, I suspect you may be applying Nick Bostrom’s version of observer selection: hold the probability of each possible version of the universe fixed independent of the number of observers, then divide that probability equally amongst the observers. Well, that approach is BS whenever the number of observers differs between possible universes, since if you imagine aliens in the universe but causally separate, the probabilities would depend on their existence.
Also, does it really make sense to you, intuitively, that you should get a different result given two actually existing universes compared to two possible universes?
This could only reflect uncertainty that anthropic reasoning was valid. If you were certain anthropic reasoning were valid (I’m sure not!) then you would make no such update. In practice, after surviving a few hundred rounds of quantum suicide, would further survivals really seem to call for alternative explanations?
As I pointed out earlier, if there was even a tiny chance of the machine being broken in such a way as to appear to be working, that probability would dominate sooner or later.
One last thing: if you really believe that annihilational events are irrelevant, please do not produce any GAIs until you come to your senses.