The question “how many LHC failures is too many?” is the question “how negligible was your prior on the LHC being dangerous, really?” Is it low enough to ignore 10 failures? 100? 1000? Do you have enough confidence in your understanding of physics to defy the data that many times?
Ok. Somehow it came across as taking the idea of LHC risk more seriously than is rational. I’m not sure why it didn’t feel hypothetical enough (I should have been tipped off when Eliezer didn’t mention the obvious part where the LHC would lose funding if the failures became too numerous. I’d consider 1000 LHC failures indicative that my model of how scientists get funding is broken before the LHC actually being a doomsday weapon.).
The question “how many LHC failures is too many?” is the question “how negligible was your prior on the LHC being dangerous, really?” Is it low enough to ignore 10 failures? 100? 1000? Do you have enough confidence in your understanding of physics to defy the data that many times?
Ok. Somehow it came across as taking the idea of LHC risk more seriously than is rational. I’m not sure why it didn’t feel hypothetical enough (I should have been tipped off when Eliezer didn’t mention the obvious part where the LHC would lose funding if the failures became too numerous. I’d consider 1000 LHC failures indicative that my model of how scientists get funding is broken before the LHC actually being a doomsday weapon.).
Not both?