Simon: As I say above, I’m out of my league when it comes to actual probabilities and maths, but:
P(W|F) = P(F|W)P(W)/P(F)
Note that none of these probabilities are conditional on survival.
Is that correct? If the LHC is dangerous and MWI is true, then the probability of observing failure is 1, since that’s the only thing that gets observed.
An analogy I would give is:
You’re created by God, who tells you that he has just created 10 people who are each in a red room, and depending on a coin flip God made, either 0 or 10,000,000 people who are each in a blue room. You are one of these people. You turn the lights on and see that you’re one of the 10 people in a red room. Don’t you immediately conclude that there are almost certainly only 10 people, with nobody in a blue room?
The red rooms represent Everett worlds where the LHC miraculously and repeatedly fails.
The blue rooms represent Everett worlds where the LHC works.
God’s coin flip is whether or not the LHC is dangerous.
i.e. You conclude that there are no people in worlds where the LHC works (blue rooms), because they’re all dead. The reasoning still works even if the coin is biased, as long as it’s not too biased.
Simon: As I say above, I’m out of my league when it comes to actual probabilities and maths, but:
P(W|F) = P(F|W)P(W)/P(F)
Note that none of these probabilities are conditional on survival.
Is that correct? If the LHC is dangerous and MWI is true, then the probability of observing failure is 1, since that’s the only thing that gets observed.
An analogy I would give is:
You’re created by God, who tells you that he has just created 10 people who are each in a red room, and depending on a coin flip God made, either 0 or 10,000,000 people who are each in a blue room. You are one of these people. You turn the lights on and see that you’re one of the 10 people in a red room. Don’t you immediately conclude that there are almost certainly only 10 people, with nobody in a blue room?
The red rooms represent Everett worlds where the LHC miraculously and repeatedly fails. The blue rooms represent Everett worlds where the LHC works. God’s coin flip is whether or not the LHC is dangerous.
i.e. You conclude that there are no people in worlds where the LHC works (blue rooms), because they’re all dead. The reasoning still works even if the coin is biased, as long as it’s not too biased.