The idea is that the risk is infinitesimal but you want to put an approximate number on that using a method of imaginary updates—how much imaginary evidence would it take to change your mind?
That makes sense. I made a similar misinterpretation on a different post around the same time I read this one, so putting the two together makes me pretty confident I was not thinking at my best yesterday. (Either that, or my best is worse than I usually believe.)
The idea is that the risk is infinitesimal but you want to put an approximate number on that using a method of imaginary updates—how much imaginary evidence would it take to change your mind?
That makes sense. I made a similar misinterpretation on a different post around the same time I read this one, so putting the two together makes me pretty confident I was not thinking at my best yesterday. (Either that, or my best is worse than I usually believe.)