Eliezer, I used “=>” (intending logical implication), not “>=”.
I would suggest you read my post above on this second page, and see if that changes your mind.
Also, in a previous post in this thread I argued that one should be surprised by externally improbable survival, at least in the sense that it should make one increase the probability assigned to alternative explanations of the world that do not make survival so unlikely.
Eliezer, I used “=>” (intending logical implication), not “>=”.
I would suggest you read my post above on this second page, and see if that changes your mind.
Also, in a previous post in this thread I argued that one should be surprised by externally improbable survival, at least in the sense that it should make one increase the probability assigned to alternative explanations of the world that do not make survival so unlikely.