Coal electric generation isn’t going away anytime soon. The only reason coal may look at the moment like it is declining in the US is because at the moment natural gas generation in the US is less expensive than coal. But in Europe, coal is less expensive and, remarkably, generating companies respond by turning up coal and turning down natural gas.
Doesn’t need to be going away for my argument to hold, as long as the relative proportions are favorable—and as far as I can tell, most of that GIC delta in coal is happening in the developing world, where I don’t see too many people buying Teslas. Europe and the US project new capacity disproportionately in the form of renewables; coal is going up in Europe, but less quickly.
This isn’t ideal; I’m generally long on wind and solar, but if I had my way we’d be building Gen IV nuclear reactors as fast as we could lay down concrete. But neither is it as grim as the picture you seem to be painting.
This isn’t ideal; …. But neither is it as grim as the picture you seem to be painting.
I would agree with that.. Certainly my initial picture was just wrong. Even using Coal as the standard, the Tesla is as good as a 25 mpg gasolilne car. For that size and quality of car, that is actually not bad, but it is best in class, not revolutionary.
As to subsidizing a Tesla as opposed to a 40 mpg diesel, for example, as long as we use coal for electricity, we are better off adding a 40 mpg diesel to the fleet than adding a Tesla. This is almost just me hating on subsidies, preferring that we just tax fuels proportional to their carbon content and let market forces decide how to distribute that distortion.
This is almost just me hating on subsidies, preferring that we just tax fuels proportional to their carbon content and let market forces decide how to distribute that distortion.
That probably is better baseline policy from a carbon minimization perspective, yeah; I have similar objections to the fleet mileage penalties imposed on automakers in the US, which ended up contributing among other things to a good chunk of the SUV boom in the ’90s and ’00s. Now, I can see an argument for subsidies or even direct grants if they help kickstart building EV infrastructure or enable game-changing research, but that should be narrowly targeted, not the basis of our entire approach.
Unfortunately, basic economic literacy is not exactly a hallmark of environmental policy.
The global installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is expected to increase from 1,673.1 GW in 2012 to 2.057.6 GW by 2019, according to a report from Transparency Market Research. Coal-fired electrical-generation plants are being started up in Europe—and comparatively clean gas-fired generating capacity is being shut down.
Coal electric generation isn’t going away anytime soon. The only reason coal may look at the moment like it is declining in the US is because at the moment natural gas generation in the US is less expensive than coal. But in Europe, coal is less expensive and, remarkably, generating companies respond by turning up coal and turning down natural gas.
Doesn’t need to be going away for my argument to hold, as long as the relative proportions are favorable—and as far as I can tell, most of that GIC delta in coal is happening in the developing world, where I don’t see too many people buying Teslas. Europe and the US project new capacity disproportionately in the form of renewables; coal is going up in Europe, but less quickly.
This isn’t ideal; I’m generally long on wind and solar, but if I had my way we’d be building Gen IV nuclear reactors as fast as we could lay down concrete. But neither is it as grim as the picture you seem to be painting.
I would agree with that.. Certainly my initial picture was just wrong. Even using Coal as the standard, the Tesla is as good as a 25 mpg gasolilne car. For that size and quality of car, that is actually not bad, but it is best in class, not revolutionary.
As to subsidizing a Tesla as opposed to a 40 mpg diesel, for example, as long as we use coal for electricity, we are better off adding a 40 mpg diesel to the fleet than adding a Tesla. This is almost just me hating on subsidies, preferring that we just tax fuels proportional to their carbon content and let market forces decide how to distribute that distortion.
That probably is better baseline policy from a carbon minimization perspective, yeah; I have similar objections to the fleet mileage penalties imposed on automakers in the US, which ended up contributing among other things to a good chunk of the SUV boom in the ’90s and ’00s. Now, I can see an argument for subsidies or even direct grants if they help kickstart building EV infrastructure or enable game-changing research, but that should be narrowly targeted, not the basis of our entire approach.
Unfortunately, basic economic literacy is not exactly a hallmark of environmental policy.