My guess is that the synthesis functionality of current LLMs is actually adding something here and a no-LLM group would do quite a bit worse, but 83% of people seem to disagree with me:
This is a random nit, but a market with a probability of 17% does not imply that 83% of people disagree with you. I don’t know what fraction of people agree with you, I just know that by whatever mechanism Manifold traders are willing to trade, the current price is at 17%.
This is a random nit, but a market with a probability of 17% does not imply that 83% of people disagree with you. I don’t know what fraction of people agree with you, I just know that by whatever mechanism Manifold traders are willing to trade, the current price is at 17%.
Sorry, that was sloppy, fixed!
Is this a typo?
Oops, yep, fixed.