5% was one of several different estimates he’d heard from virologists.
Thanks, this is helpful. And I agree there’s a disanalogy between the 1918 hypothetical and the source.
it’s not clear we want a bunch of effort going into getting a really good estimate, since (a) if it turns out the probability is high then publicizing that fact likely means increasing the chance we get one and (b) building general knowledge on how to estimate the pandemic potential of viruses seems also likely net negative.
This seems like it might be overly cautious. Bioterrorism is already quite salient, especially with Rishi Sunak, the White House, and many mainstream media outlets speaking publicly about it. Even SecureBio is writing headline-grabbing papers about how AI can be used to cause pandemics. In that environment, I don’t think biologists and policymakers should refrain from gathering evidence about biorisks and how to combat them. The contribution to public awareness would be relatively small, and the benefits of a better understanding of the risks could lead to a net improvement in biosecurity.
For example, estimating the probability that known pathogens would cause 100M+ deaths if released is an extremely important question for deciding whether open source LLMs should be banned. If the answer is demonstrably yes, I’d expect the White House to significantly restrict open source LLMs within a year or two. This benefit would be far greater than the cost of raising the issue’s salience.
Thanks, this is helpful. And I agree there’s a disanalogy between the 1918 hypothetical and the source.
This seems like it might be overly cautious. Bioterrorism is already quite salient, especially with Rishi Sunak, the White House, and many mainstream media outlets speaking publicly about it. Even SecureBio is writing headline-grabbing papers about how AI can be used to cause pandemics. In that environment, I don’t think biologists and policymakers should refrain from gathering evidence about biorisks and how to combat them. The contribution to public awareness would be relatively small, and the benefits of a better understanding of the risks could lead to a net improvement in biosecurity.
For example, estimating the probability that known pathogens would cause 100M+ deaths if released is an extremely important question for deciding whether open source LLMs should be banned. If the answer is demonstrably yes, I’d expect the White House to significantly restrict open source LLMs within a year or two. This benefit would be far greater than the cost of raising the issue’s salience.