If the market is genuinely this beatable, it seems important for the rationalist/EA/forecaster cluster to take advantage of future such opportunities in an organized way, even if it just means someone setting up a Facebook group or something.
(edit: I think the evidence, while impressive, is a little weaker than it seems on first glance, because my impression from Metaculus is the probability of the virus becoming widespread has gotten higher in recent days for reasons that look unrelated to your point about what the economic implications of a widespread virus would be.)
my impression from Metaculus is the probability of the virus becoming widespread has gotten higher in recent days for reasons that look unrelated to your point about what the economic implications of a widespread virus would be.
Do you care to share those reasons? I’ve also been following Metaculus and my impression has been a slow progression of updates as the outbreak has gotten bigger, rather than a big update. However, the stock market looks like it did a big update.
I don’t know what the reasons are off the top of my head. I’m not saying the probability rise caused most of the stock market fall, just that it has to be taken into account as a nonzero part of why Wei won his 1 in 8 bet.
If the market is genuinely this beatable, it seems important for the rationalist/EA/forecaster cluster to take advantage of future such opportunities in an organized way, even if it just means someone setting up a Facebook group or something.
(edit: I think the evidence, while impressive, is a little weaker than it seems on first glance, because my impression from Metaculus is the probability of the virus becoming widespread has gotten higher in recent days for reasons that look unrelated to your point about what the economic implications of a widespread virus would be.)
Do you care to share those reasons? I’ve also been following Metaculus and my impression has been a slow progression of updates as the outbreak has gotten bigger, rather than a big update. However, the stock market looks like it did a big update.
I don’t know what the reasons are off the top of my head. I’m not saying the probability rise caused most of the stock market fall, just that it has to be taken into account as a nonzero part of why Wei won his 1 in 8 bet.
The easy way is for Wei_Dai to take your money, invest it as he would his, and take 10% of the increase.