On one hand, people in the mainstream still seem too optimistic to me. Like, apparently,
Cases of the new coronavirus disease are rising quickly outside China, and the odds of the outbreak turning into a pandemic have now doubled — from 20% to 40%, according to a report from Moody’s Analytics.
This seems super optimistic to me. I don’t see why people are still forecasting majority probability that it will be contained. On the other hand, I’ve been convinced to be more optimistic than the 15-20% prediction of disaster I had the other day.
I did a more detailed dive into the evidence for a case fatality rate in the 2-3% range and I know think that it’s very likely lower. Still, at 0.5% − 1% it would be much more severe than an average flu season and the market might take it seriously simply due to the shock factor. There is also the potential for an effective anti-viral being developed by the end of the year, which makes me a bit more hopeful.
I am not well calibrated about whether the ~12% market drop is appropriate given the evidence above.
On one hand, people in the mainstream still seem too optimistic to me. Like, apparently,
This seems super optimistic to me. I don’t see why people are still forecasting majority probability that it will be contained. On the other hand, I’ve been convinced to be more optimistic than the 15-20% prediction of disaster I had the other day.
I did a more detailed dive into the evidence for a case fatality rate in the 2-3% range and I know think that it’s very likely lower. Still, at 0.5% − 1% it would be much more severe than an average flu season and the market might take it seriously simply due to the shock factor. There is also the potential for an effective anti-viral being developed by the end of the year, which makes me a bit more hopeful.
I am not well calibrated about whether the ~12% market drop is appropriate given the evidence above.