One in a billion seems way, way, way too low to me. (Like, I think that’s a crazy p(win) to have, and I’d be shocked beyond shocked if Eliezer’s p(win) were that low. Like, if he told me that I don’t think I’d believe him.)
Ok, that’s good to hear! Just checking, do you feel similarly about 1 in 100k?
No, that’s a lot lower than my probability but it doesn’t trigger the same ‘that can’t be right, we must be miscommunicating somehow’ reaction.
I see. Thanks for the response.
One in a billion seems way, way, way too low to me. (Like, I think that’s a crazy p(win) to have, and I’d be shocked beyond shocked if Eliezer’s p(win) were that low. Like, if he told me that I don’t think I’d believe him.)
Ok, that’s good to hear! Just checking, do you feel similarly about 1 in 100k?
No, that’s a lot lower than my probability but it doesn’t trigger the same ‘that can’t be right, we must be miscommunicating somehow’ reaction.
I see. Thanks for the response.