I don’t expect Yudkosky to settle this if he’s dead. If he dies, I will resolve the market N/A per the description. If I die then it will be in the hands of my next-of-kin. If everyone dies then it probably will not resolve.
I’m aware that humanity may not make it to 2030. This distorts the number less than you might think. Today, most people do not think the world will end prior to 2030, and will continue to bet as normal. Additionally, currently Manifold offers automatic subsidized interest-free loans on bets. If you somehow know that the world will end prior to 2030 then you can bet freely on post-2030 markets and know that you will never need to repay those loans. This differs from real-money prediction markets.
I consider naming particular years to be a cognitively harmful sort of activity; I have refrained from trying to translate my brain’s native intuitions about this into probabilities, for fear that my verbalized probabilities will be stupider than my intuitions if I try to put weight on them. What feelings I do have, I worry may be unwise to voice; AGI timelines, in my own experience, are not great for one’s mental health, and I worry that other people seem to have weaker immune systems than even my own. But I suppose I cannot but acknowledge that my outward behavior seems to reveal a distribution whose median seems to fall well before 2050.
I think the 2030 date on the market is compatible with this.
How do you expect Yudkowsky to settle this if he’s been turned into paperclips? It might distort the number a bit.
I don’t expect Yudkosky to settle this if he’s dead. If he dies, I will resolve the market N/A per the description. If I die then it will be in the hands of my next-of-kin. If everyone dies then it probably will not resolve.
I’m aware that humanity may not make it to 2030. This distorts the number less than you might think. Today, most people do not think the world will end prior to 2030, and will continue to bet as normal. Additionally, currently Manifold offers automatic subsidized interest-free loans on bets. If you somehow know that the world will end prior to 2030 then you can bet freely on post-2030 markets and know that you will never need to repay those loans. This differs from real-money prediction markets.
As I read this “death with dignity” post, the claim is that we are doomed, not that we are doomed in the next seven years. The basic argument does not change much in a world where we make it to 2030, or indeed to 2050. Regarding timelines, Yudkowsky wrote in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works that:
I think the 2030 date on the market is compatible with this.