I think many of the things that you might want to do in order to slow down tech development are things that will dramatically worsen human experiences, or reduce the number of them. Making a trade like that in order to purchase the whole future seems like it’s worth considering; making a trade like that in order to purchase three more years seems much more obviously not worth it.
I will note that I’m still a little confused about Butlerian Jihad style approaches (where you smash all the computers, or restrict them to the capability available in 1999 or w/e); if I remember correctly Eliezer has called that a ‘straightforward loss’, which seems correct from a ‘cosmic endowment’ perspective but not from a ‘counting up from ~10 remaining years’ perspective.
My guess is that the main response is “look, if you can coordinate to smash all of the computers, you can probably coordinate on the less destructive-to-potential task of just not building AGI, and the difficulty is primarily in coordinating at all instead of the coordination target.”
I think many of the things that you might want to do in order to slow down tech development are things that will dramatically worsen human experiences, or reduce the number of them. Making a trade like that in order to purchase the whole future seems like it’s worth considering; making a trade like that in order to purchase three more years seems much more obviously not worth it.
I will note that I’m still a little confused about Butlerian Jihad style approaches (where you smash all the computers, or restrict them to the capability available in 1999 or w/e); if I remember correctly Eliezer has called that a ‘straightforward loss’, which seems correct from a ‘cosmic endowment’ perspective but not from a ‘counting up from ~10 remaining years’ perspective.
My guess is that the main response is “look, if you can coordinate to smash all of the computers, you can probably coordinate on the less destructive-to-potential task of just not building AGI, and the difficulty is primarily in coordinating at all instead of the coordination target.”