“I mean, I agree that we’ve failed at our goal. But “haven’t done a very good job” implies to me something like “it was possible to not fail”, which, unclear?”
Of course it was. Was it difficult? Certainly. So difficult that I don’t blame anyone for failing, like I’ve stated in my comment reply to this post.
It’s an extremely difficult problem both technically and politically/socially. The difference is that I don’t see any technical solutions, and have as well heard very convincing arguments by the likes of Roman Yalmpolskiy that such thing might not even exist. But we can all agree that there is at least one political solution—to not build advanced AIs before we’ve solved the alignment problem. No matter how extremely difficult such solution might seem, it actually exists and seems possible.
So we’ve failed, but I’m not blaming anyone because it’s damn difficult. In fact I have nothing but the deepest admiration for the likes of Eliezer, Bostrom and Russell. But my critique still stands: such failure (to get the leaders to care, not the technical failure to solve alignment) COULD be IN PART because most prominent figures like these 3 only talk about AI x-risk and not worse outcomes.
“unless they decide to take it as seriously as they take nuclear proliferation”
That’s precisely what we need. I’d assume that most in this community are quite solidly convinced that “AI is far more dangerous than nukes” (to quote our friend Elon). If leaders could adopt our reasoning, it could be done.
“the actual result will be companies need large compliance departments in order to develop AI systems, and those compliance departments won’t be able to tell the difference between dangerous and non-dangerous AI.”
There are other regulation alternatives. Like restricting access to supercomputers. Or even stoping AI research altogether until we’ve made much more progress on alignment. But your concern is still completely legitimate. But where’s the technical solutions in sight, as an alternative? Should we rather risk dying (again, that’s not even the worse risk) because political solutions seem intractable and only try technical solutions when those seem even way more intractable?
Contingency measures, both technical and political, could also be more effective than both full alignment and political solutions.
But my critique still stands: such failure (to get the leaders to care, not the technical failure to solve alignment) COULD be IN PART because most prominent figures like these 3 only talk about AI x-risk and not worse outcomes.
From the point of view of most humans, there are few outcomes worse than extinction of humanity (x-risk). Are you implying that most leaders would prefer extinction of humanity to some other likely outcome, and could be persuaded if we focused on that instead?
I strongly suspect there are some that do have such preferences, but I also think that those unpersuaded by the risk of extinction wouldn’t be persuaded by any other argument anyway.
“From the point of view of most humans, there are few outcomes worse than extinction of humanity (x-risk).”
That’s obviously not true. What would you prefer: extinction of humanity, or permanent Holocaust?
“Are you implying that most leaders would prefer extinction of humanity to some other likely outcome, and could be persuaded if we focused on that instead?”
Anyone would prefer extinction to say a permanent Holocaust. Anyone sane at least. But I’m not implying that they would prefer extinction to a positive outcome.
“but I also think that those unpersuaded by the risk of extinction wouldn’t be persuaded by any other argument anyway”
I’ll ask you again: which is worse, extinction or permanent Holocaust?
Note that I didn’t say that there are no outcomes that are worse than extinction. That said, I’m not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, but that’s irrelevant to my point anyway. If someone isn’t convinced by the risk of permanent extinction, are you likely to convince them by the (almost certainly smaller) risk of permanent Holocaust instead?
“That said, I’m not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, but that’s irrelevant to my point anyway.”
Maybe it’s not. What we guess are other people’s values is heavily influenced by our own values. And if you are not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, then, no offense, but you have a very scary value system.
“If someone isn’t convinced by the risk of permanent extinction, are you likely to convince them by the (almost certainly smaller) risk of permanent Holocaust instead?”
Naturally, because the latter is orders of magnitude worse than the former. But again, if you don’t share this view, I can’t see myself convincing you.
And we also have no idea if it really is smaller. But even a small risk of an extremely bad outcome is reason for high alarm.
What exactly do you mean by permanent Holocaust? The way Wikipedia defines the Holocaust it’s about the genocide of Jewish people. Other sources include the genocide of groups like Sinti and Roma as well.
While genocide is very bad, human extinction includes most of the evils of genocide as well, so I would not prefer human extinction.
Everyone knows that the Holocaust wasn’t just genocide. It was also torture, evil medical experiments, etc. But you’re right, I should have used a better example. Not that I think that anyone really misunderstood what I meant.
“I mean, I agree that we’ve failed at our goal. But “haven’t done a very good job” implies to me something like “it was possible to not fail”, which, unclear?”
Of course it was. Was it difficult? Certainly. So difficult that I don’t blame anyone for failing, like I’ve stated in my comment reply to this post.
It’s an extremely difficult problem both technically and politically/socially. The difference is that I don’t see any technical solutions, and have as well heard very convincing arguments by the likes of Roman Yalmpolskiy that such thing might not even exist. But we can all agree that there is at least one political solution—to not build advanced AIs before we’ve solved the alignment problem. No matter how extremely difficult such solution might seem, it actually exists and seems possible.
So we’ve failed, but I’m not blaming anyone because it’s damn difficult. In fact I have nothing but the deepest admiration for the likes of Eliezer, Bostrom and Russell. But my critique still stands: such failure (to get the leaders to care, not the technical failure to solve alignment) COULD be IN PART because most prominent figures like these 3 only talk about AI x-risk and not worse outcomes.
“unless they decide to take it as seriously as they take nuclear proliferation”
That’s precisely what we need. I’d assume that most in this community are quite solidly convinced that “AI is far more dangerous than nukes” (to quote our friend Elon). If leaders could adopt our reasoning, it could be done.
“the actual result will be companies need large compliance departments in order to develop AI systems, and those compliance departments won’t be able to tell the difference between dangerous and non-dangerous AI.”
There are other regulation alternatives. Like restricting access to supercomputers. Or even stoping AI research altogether until we’ve made much more progress on alignment. But your concern is still completely legitimate. But where’s the technical solutions in sight, as an alternative? Should we rather risk dying (again, that’s not even the worse risk) because political solutions seem intractable and only try technical solutions when those seem even way more intractable?
Contingency measures, both technical and political, could also be more effective than both full alignment and political solutions.
From the point of view of most humans, there are few outcomes worse than extinction of humanity (x-risk). Are you implying that most leaders would prefer extinction of humanity to some other likely outcome, and could be persuaded if we focused on that instead?
I strongly suspect there are some that do have such preferences, but I also think that those unpersuaded by the risk of extinction wouldn’t be persuaded by any other argument anyway.
“From the point of view of most humans, there are few outcomes worse than extinction of humanity (x-risk).”
That’s obviously not true. What would you prefer: extinction of humanity, or permanent Holocaust?
“Are you implying that most leaders would prefer extinction of humanity to some other likely outcome, and could be persuaded if we focused on that instead?”
Anyone would prefer extinction to say a permanent Holocaust. Anyone sane at least. But I’m not implying that they would prefer extinction to a positive outcome.
“but I also think that those unpersuaded by the risk of extinction wouldn’t be persuaded by any other argument anyway”
I’ll ask you again: which is worse, extinction or permanent Holocaust?
Note that I didn’t say that there are no outcomes that are worse than extinction. That said, I’m not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, but that’s irrelevant to my point anyway. If someone isn’t convinced by the risk of permanent extinction, are you likely to convince them by the (almost certainly smaller) risk of permanent Holocaust instead?
“That said, I’m not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, but that’s irrelevant to my point anyway.”
Maybe it’s not. What we guess are other people’s values is heavily influenced by our own values. And if you are not convinced that permanent Holocaust is worse than permanent extinction, then, no offense, but you have a very scary value system.
“If someone isn’t convinced by the risk of permanent extinction, are you likely to convince them by the (almost certainly smaller) risk of permanent Holocaust instead?”
Naturally, because the latter is orders of magnitude worse than the former. But again, if you don’t share this view, I can’t see myself convincing you.
And we also have no idea if it really is smaller. But even a small risk of an extremely bad outcome is reason for high alarm.
What exactly do you mean by permanent Holocaust? The way Wikipedia defines the Holocaust it’s about the genocide of Jewish people. Other sources include the genocide of groups like Sinti and Roma as well.
While genocide is very bad, human extinction includes most of the evils of genocide as well, so I would not prefer human extinction.
I think he means the part where people were in ghettos/concentration-camps
Everyone knows that the Holocaust wasn’t just genocide. It was also torture, evil medical experiments, etc. But you’re right, I should have used a better example. Not that I think that anyone really misunderstood what I meant.