While we happen to be on the topic: can I ask whether (a) you’ve been keeping up with Vanessa’s work on infra-Bayesianism, and if so, whether (b) you understand it well enough to have any thoughts on it? It sounds (and has sounded for quite a while) like Vanessa is proposing this as an alternative theoretical foundation for agency / updating, and also appears to view this as significantly more promising than the stuff MIRI has been doing (as is apparent from e.g. remarks like this):
Optimism about deep learning: There has been considerable progress in theoretical understanding of deep learning. This understanding is far from complete, but also the problem doesn’t seem intractable. I think that we will have pretty good theory in a decade, more likely than not[...]
Yudkowsky seems to believe we are pretty far from a good theory of rational agents. On the other hand, I have a model of how this theory will look like, and a concrete pathway towards constructing it.
Ideally I (along with anyone else interested in this field) would be well-placed to evaluate Vanessa’s claims directly; in practice it seems that very few people are able to do so, and consequently infra-Bayesianism has received very little discussion on LW/AF (though my subjective impression of the discussion it has received is that those who discuss it seem to be reasonably impressed with / enthusiastic about it).
So, as long as one of the field’s founding members happens to be on LW handing out takes… could I ask for a take on infra-Bayesianism?
(You’ve stated multiple times that you find other people’s work unpromising; this by implication suggests also that infra-Bayesianism is one of the things you find unpromising, but only if you’ve been paying enough attention to it to have an assessment. It seems like infra-Bayesianism has flew under the radar of a lot of people, though, so I’m hesitantly optimistic that it may have underflew your radar as well.)
While we happen to be on the topic: can I ask whether (a) you’ve been keeping up with Vanessa’s work on infra-Bayesianism, and if so, whether (b) you understand it well enough to have any thoughts on it? It sounds (and has sounded for quite a while) like Vanessa is proposing this as an alternative theoretical foundation for agency / updating, and also appears to view this as significantly more promising than the stuff MIRI has been doing (as is apparent from e.g. remarks like this):
Ideally I (along with anyone else interested in this field) would be well-placed to evaluate Vanessa’s claims directly; in practice it seems that very few people are able to do so, and consequently infra-Bayesianism has received very little discussion on LW/AF (though my subjective impression of the discussion it has received is that those who discuss it seem to be reasonably impressed with / enthusiastic about it).
So, as long as one of the field’s founding members happens to be on LW handing out takes… could I ask for a take on infra-Bayesianism?
(You’ve stated multiple times that you find other people’s work unpromising; this by implication suggests also that infra-Bayesianism is one of the things you find unpromising, but only if you’ve been paying enough attention to it to have an assessment. It seems like infra-Bayesianism has flew under the radar of a lot of people, though, so I’m hesitantly optimistic that it may have underflew your radar as well.)