I disagree with Eliezer about half the time, including about very fundamental things, but I strongly upvoted the post, because that attitude gives both the best chance of success conditional on the correct evaluation of the problem, and it does not kill you if the evaluation is incorrect and the x-risk in question is an error in the model. It is basically a Max EV calculation for most reasonable probability distributions.
I disagree with Eliezer about half the time, including about very fundamental things, but I strongly upvoted the post, because that attitude gives both the best chance of success conditional on the correct evaluation of the problem, and it does not kill you if the evaluation is incorrect and the x-risk in question is an error in the model. It is basically a Max EV calculation for most reasonable probability distributions.