Also and in practice? People don’t just pick one comfortable improbability to condition on. They go on encountering unpleasant facts true on the mainline, and each time saying, “Well, if that’s true, I’m doomed, so I may as well assume it’s not true,” and they say more and more things like this. If you do this it very rapidly drives down the probability mass of the ‘possible’ world you’re mentally inhabiting. Pretty soon you’re living in a place that’s nowhere near reality.
Holy shit, you nailed it hard.
I had a conversation about this exact subject in the Paris SSC meetup, and I was frustrated for exactly the reasons you mention.
Holy shit, you nailed it hard.
I had a conversation about this exact subject in the Paris SSC meetup, and I was frustrated for exactly the reasons you mention.