I think possibly the key conceptual distinction you want to make is between short-term play and long-term play. If I deliberately assume an emotional stance, often a lot of the benefit to be gained therefrom is how it translates long-term correct play into myopic play for the emotional reward, assuming of course that the translation is correct. Long-term, you play for absolute probabilities. Short-term, you chase after “dignity”, aka stackable log-odds improvements, at least until you’re out of the curve’s basement.
I feel like this comment in particular is very clarifying with regards to the motivation of this stance. The benefit is that this imports recommendations of the ideal long-run policy into the short-run frame from which you’re actually acting.
I think that should maybe be in the post somewhere.
I think possibly the key conceptual distinction you want to make is between short-term play and long-term play. If I deliberately assume an emotional stance, often a lot of the benefit to be gained therefrom is how it translates long-term correct play into myopic play for the emotional reward, assuming of course that the translation is correct. Long-term, you play for absolute probabilities. Short-term, you chase after “dignity”, aka stackable log-odds improvements, at least until you’re out of the curve’s basement.
I feel like this comment in particular is very clarifying with regards to the motivation of this stance. The benefit is that this imports recommendations of the ideal long-run policy into the short-run frame from which you’re actually acting.
I think that should maybe be in the post somewhere.