If I’m understanding the original question correctly (and if not, well, I’m asking it myself), the issue is that as you just pointed out, there are plenty of non-AI-related massive threats to humanity that we may be able to avert with far higher likelihood, (assuming we survive long enough to be able to do so). If the probability of changing the AGI end-of-the-world situation is extremely low, and if that was the only potential danger to humanity, then of course we should still focus on it. However, we also face many other risks we actually stand a chance of fighting, and according to Yudkowsky’s line of thinking, we should act for the counterfactual world in which we somehow solve the alignment problem. Therefore, shouldn’t we be focusing more on other issues, if the probabilities are really that bad?
If I’m understanding the original question correctly (and if not, well, I’m asking it myself), the issue is that as you just pointed out, there are plenty of non-AI-related massive threats to humanity that we may be able to avert with far higher likelihood, (assuming we survive long enough to be able to do so). If the probability of changing the AGI end-of-the-world situation is extremely low, and if that was the only potential danger to humanity, then of course we should still focus on it. However, we also face many other risks we actually stand a chance of fighting, and according to Yudkowsky’s line of thinking, we should act for the counterfactual world in which we somehow solve the alignment problem. Therefore, shouldn’t we be focusing more on other issues, if the probabilities are really that bad?