One of Eliezer’s points is that most people’s judgements about adding 1e-5 odds (I assume you mean log odds and not additive probability?) are wrong, and even systematically have the wrong sign.
One of Eliezer’s points is that most people’s judgements about adding 1e-5 odds (I assume you mean log odds and not additive probability?) are wrong, and even systematically have the wrong sign.