Seriously, why can’t we just say that buying lottery tickets is stupid?
The answer is: because that would be a silly over-generalisation. Gambling is sometimes a rational course of action. It is good for people to be aware of that—in case they find themselves needing to gamble—a common circumstance—especially for males.
Roulette is often better than buying lottery tickets for large sums—due to taxation issues. However, in some countries, there’s a government-run lottery and many other forms of gambling are illegal.
Can you confidently assert (p > 0.8) that, since the advent of modern lotteries, at least a thousand people have arrived independently in circumstances under which buying lottery tickets was a non-stupid action?
Can you confidently assert (p > 0.8) that, since the advent of modern lotteries, at least a thousand people have arrived independently in circumstances under which buying lottery tickets was a non-stupid action?
That sounds reasonable to me—though it is not what I claimed. For instance, if someone in authority tells you to buy a lottery ticket for them.
The original post asks:
The answer is: because that would be a silly over-generalisation. Gambling is sometimes a rational course of action. It is good for people to be aware of that—in case they find themselves needing to gamble—a common circumstance—especially for males.
Roulette is often better than buying lottery tickets for large sums—due to taxation issues. However, in some countries, there’s a government-run lottery and many other forms of gambling are illegal.
Note that the economist Robin Hanson made exactly the same point as me here.
Can you confidently assert (p > 0.8) that, since the advent of modern lotteries, at least a thousand people have arrived independently in circumstances under which buying lottery tickets was a non-stupid action?
What kind of circumstances were they?
That sounds reasonable to me—though it is not what I claimed. For instance, if someone in authority tells you to buy a lottery ticket for them.