In retrospect, I feel silly for having previously thought that voting wasn’t worthwhile. How could I have overlooked the insanely large payoff part of the expected value calculation?
Moderate shift towards distrusting my own reasoning ability.
I feel like this is a pretty big thing for me to have overlooked. And that my overlooking it points towards me generally being vulnerable to overlooking similarly important things in the future, in which case I can’t expect myself to reason super well about things.
Instead of thinking of it as a global variable, I tend to think of my reasoning ability as ‘good but narrow.’ Which is to say can arrive at good local results but prone to missing better optimums even if nearby if along dimensions that that problem domain doesn’t highlight. The higher the dimensionality of the problem, the more I view my results as highly provisional and more a function of time:result quality/completeness
I like that way of thinking about it. The ability to notice those other dimensions seems like a hugely important skill though. It reminds me of this excerpt from HPMOR:
A Muggle security expert would have called it fence-post security, like building a fence-post over a hundred metres high in the middle of the desert. Only a very obliging attacker would try to climb the fence-post. Anyone sensible would just walk around the fence-post, and making the fence-post even higher wouldn’t stop that.
Once you forgot to be scared of how impossible the problem was supposed to be, it wasn’t even difficult...
Moderate shift towards distrusting my own reasoning ability.
I feel like this is a pretty big thing for me to have overlooked. And that my overlooking it points towards me generally being vulnerable to overlooking similarly important things in the future, in which case I can’t expect myself to reason super well about things.
Instead of thinking of it as a global variable, I tend to think of my reasoning ability as ‘good but narrow.’ Which is to say can arrive at good local results but prone to missing better optimums even if nearby if along dimensions that that problem domain doesn’t highlight. The higher the dimensionality of the problem, the more I view my results as highly provisional and more a function of time:result quality/completeness
I like that way of thinking about it. The ability to notice those other dimensions seems like a hugely important skill though. It reminds me of this excerpt from HPMOR: