Does anyone know what the largest amount of money wagered on this question is?
EDIT: I’m aware of a few bets on specific claimed proofs, but have not been able to find any bets on the general question that exceed a few hundred dollars (unless you count the million-dollar prizes various institutes are offering).
When I read that, I didn’t expect him to actually pay up in the unlikely event the proof was right—there’s a big difference between saying ‘I bet my house’ on your blog and actually sending a few hundred thousand or million bucks to the Long Now Foundation’s Long Bets project.
It was an example of a more credible commitment than a blog post. To paraphrase Buffet’s Noah principle, ‘predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does’.
EDIT: an additional disadvantage to Long Bets is that they stash the stakes in a very low return fund (but one that should be next to invulnerable). Depending on your views about the future and your investment abilities, the opportunity cost could be substantial.
Also see: Polls And Predictions And P=NP
Does anyone know what the largest amount of money wagered on this question is?
EDIT: I’m aware of a few bets on specific claimed proofs, but have not been able to find any bets on the general question that exceed a few hundred dollars (unless you count the million-dollar prizes various institutes are offering).
Don’t know, but Scott Aaronson once bet $200,000 on a proof being wrong. He wrote:
When I read that, I didn’t expect him to actually pay up in the unlikely event the proof was right—there’s a big difference between saying ‘I bet my house’ on your blog and actually sending a few hundred thousand or million bucks to the Long Now Foundation’s Long Bets project.
Likewise.
With Long Bets you lose the money (to your chosen charity) even if you are right, so not an ideal comparison.
It was an example of a more credible commitment than a blog post. To paraphrase Buffet’s Noah principle, ‘predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does’.
EDIT: an additional disadvantage to Long Bets is that they stash the stakes in a very low return fund (but one that should be next to invulnerable). Depending on your views about the future and your investment abilities, the opportunity cost could be substantial.