Meaning, a 1% chance of superhuman intelligence within 5 years, right?
Sorry, I meant to say that it does not seem unreasonable to me that an AGI might take five years to self-improve. 1% does seem unreasonably low. I’m not sure what probability I would assign to “superhuman AGI in 5 years”, but under say 40% seems quite low.
Sorry, I meant to say that it does not seem unreasonable to me that an AGI might take five years to self-improve. 1% does seem unreasonably low. I’m not sure what probability I would assign to “superhuman AGI in 5 years”, but under say 40% seems quite low.