Now some have argued to me that I don’t need to be sold – that even at an infinitesimal probability of success, your project is worthwhile. I see that as a Pascal’s Mugging and don’t accept it;
If a plan looks kind of convincing, but less than airtight, there is a big range of probabilities, like say 20% where your not convinced and it isn’t a pascals mugging. If you have a team of reasonably smart people trying to make a fusion reactor or something, even if you don’t think they are trying quite the right approach, I wouldn’t assign them exponentially minute prob of success.
If a plan looks kind of convincing, but less than airtight, there is a big range of probabilities, like say 20% where your not convinced and it isn’t a pascals mugging. If you have a team of reasonably smart people trying to make a fusion reactor or something, even if you don’t think they are trying quite the right approach, I wouldn’t assign them exponentially minute prob of success.