I agree with many of your points, but have a few areas of disagreement that lead me to different conclusions:
There is considerable evidence of permanent lung damage, even in cases with no noticeable symptoms.
A one-time ten percent decrease in lung function will barely inconvenience a 20-year old. If the same person gets the same disease every year, (s)he won’t live to 30.
The linked article quotes studies indicating potentially permanent lung damage in 77% to 95% of the test subjects.
The virus is mutating in ways that complicate the development of treatments and vaccines.
Each person infected has a tiny chance of becoming host to a problematic mutation, and passing it on.
The fewer infected people, the less of a problem this will be.
I do not know (at this time) whether we will have a vaccine in a year, or ever. AFAIK we’ve never created a vaccine for a respiratory coronavirus before (we have some veterinary vaccines for intestinal coronaviruses, but not respiratory ones). Some vaccine trials for the related SARS-1 coronavirus made the disease worse, not better.
To me, this adds up to “coronavirus is potentially much more serious than you think, even for young people, and it would be better to be very cautious until the uncertainties are resolved”. I understand that the economy is doing very poorly, but I think the risks, at this time, militate against opening up. I strongly support measures to help those who’ve lost jobs because of the situation, though.
Note: This represents my opinion as of a particular time. As new information comes in, I expect to update my opinion accordingly.
Thank you for the Vox link. It was a lot more useful than anything I had previously seen about post-recovery health problems. I’ve revised my post in light of this.
I agree with many of your points, but have a few areas of disagreement that lead me to different conclusions:
There is considerable evidence of permanent lung damage, even in cases with no noticeable symptoms.
A one-time ten percent decrease in lung function will barely inconvenience a 20-year old. If the same person gets the same disease every year, (s)he won’t live to 30.
The linked article quotes studies indicating potentially permanent lung damage in 77% to 95% of the test subjects.
The virus is mutating in ways that complicate the development of treatments and vaccines.
Each person infected has a tiny chance of becoming host to a problematic mutation, and passing it on.
The fewer infected people, the less of a problem this will be.
I do not know (at this time) whether we will have a vaccine in a year, or ever. AFAIK we’ve never created a vaccine for a respiratory coronavirus before (we have some veterinary vaccines for intestinal coronaviruses, but not respiratory ones). Some vaccine trials for the related SARS-1 coronavirus made the disease worse, not better.
To me, this adds up to “coronavirus is potentially much more serious than you think, even for young people, and it would be better to be very cautious until the uncertainties are resolved”. I understand that the economy is doing very poorly, but I think the risks, at this time, militate against opening up. I strongly support measures to help those who’ve lost jobs because of the situation, though.
Note: This represents my opinion as of a particular time. As new information comes in, I expect to update my opinion accordingly.
Thank you for the Vox link. It was a lot more useful than anything I had previously seen about post-recovery health problems. I’ve revised my post in light of this.