Why is this style of pessimism repeatedly wrong? How can this optimism be justified?
Pessimism is very often right, and optimism wrong (especially about expected timeframes). The missing piece is the payoff—pessimism can be right most of the time, and optimism wrong most of the time, but most of the progress comes from the somewhat rare cases that deviate from median projections. And the optimists, while mostly wrong, drive toward those payoffs more effectively than pessimists.
I am reminded of the Python (Monty) parable of the flying sheep: https://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode02.htm . there is no hope of success, but they don’t get rid of Harold (the ringleader) because of the “enormous commercial possibilities should he succeed”.
Pessimism is very often right, and optimism wrong (especially about expected timeframes). The missing piece is the payoff—pessimism can be right most of the time, and optimism wrong most of the time, but most of the progress comes from the somewhat rare cases that deviate from median projections. And the optimists, while mostly wrong, drive toward those payoffs more effectively than pessimists.
I am reminded of the Python (Monty) parable of the flying sheep: https://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode02.htm . there is no hope of success, but they don’t get rid of Harold (the ringleader) because of the “enormous commercial possibilities should he succeed”.
Yes, I was referring to pessimism about things like resource shortages. Specific ventures and experiments often fail.