To take this straight to the nuclear winter dark side.
I’ve been reading a bit about MAD 101 and I hate it. I’m slowly embracing the idea that the most safe thing to do is to be as explicit and precommitted as possible to massive retaliation if red lines are crossed. Emotionally that sounds nuts and I’d like everyone on every side to just spam we’re not using the nukes, calm down.
But.
IF people say that and red lines keep getting crossed, at some point Side A thinks they can push one more boundary and get away with it, but Side B decides this is the limit and they press the button.
As such I think, but don’t believe if that makes sense, bellicose rhetoric about nukes reduces the risk of nuclear escalation. Implicitly people clamoring for the West to precommit to not using nukes if the Ukrainian war spills out of Ukraine are actually fuzzying Putin’s calculus in a very dangerous way.
On a lighter shade of dark note, I definitely think Putin getting away with all of his little salami tactics measures against the West in the past 10 years was why he thought he could get away with Ukraine. If massive sanctions had been issued at any point in the past, it would have never gotten to this point in Ukraine. But then again, the West would have had less justification for the sanctions...
Yes. In a better world, the West would have imposed massive sanctions after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the current invasion would probably not be happening. But since we can’t change the past, the best we can do is try to learn the right lessons to inform our decisions in the future.
A large issue I’m noting here, all of this assumes that sanctions are undesirable, and not desirable.
Yet, my reading of history is, sanctions massively drive up support for politicians, military and government. Sure they hurt the economy, but you can more than make up for that with higher taxes, which people are willing to pay now, due to their heightened patriotism. Which brings me to the further statement that being sanctioned is not a costly side effect, but the end goal. That Russia, and specifically, Russian politicians and the Russian government are acting in a way specifically designed to rile the west, because doing so is profitable.
To take this straight to the nuclear winter dark side.
I’ve been reading a bit about MAD 101 and I hate it. I’m slowly embracing the idea that the most safe thing to do is to be as explicit and precommitted as possible to massive retaliation if red lines are crossed. Emotionally that sounds nuts and I’d like everyone on every side to just spam we’re not using the nukes, calm down.
But.
IF people say that and red lines keep getting crossed, at some point Side A thinks they can push one more boundary and get away with it, but Side B decides this is the limit and they press the button.
As such I think, but don’t believe if that makes sense, bellicose rhetoric about nukes reduces the risk of nuclear escalation. Implicitly people clamoring for the West to precommit to not using nukes if the Ukrainian war spills out of Ukraine are actually fuzzying Putin’s calculus in a very dangerous way.
On a lighter shade of dark note, I definitely think Putin getting away with all of his little salami tactics measures against the West in the past 10 years was why he thought he could get away with Ukraine. If massive sanctions had been issued at any point in the past, it would have never gotten to this point in Ukraine. But then again, the West would have had less justification for the sanctions...
Yes. In a better world, the West would have imposed massive sanctions after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the current invasion would probably not be happening. But since we can’t change the past, the best we can do is try to learn the right lessons to inform our decisions in the future.
A large issue I’m noting here, all of this assumes that sanctions are undesirable, and not desirable.
Yet, my reading of history is, sanctions massively drive up support for politicians, military and government. Sure they hurt the economy, but you can more than make up for that with higher taxes, which people are willing to pay now, due to their heightened patriotism. Which brings me to the further statement that being sanctioned is not a costly side effect, but the end goal. That Russia, and specifically, Russian politicians and the Russian government are acting in a way specifically designed to rile the west, because doing so is profitable.