[2] Evidence from the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine suggests that we’d go with option 2 and take major economic damage trying to throw China out of the world trade system while still failing to save Taiwan.
These are disanalogous in that the US has not previously implied an intention to go to war to defend Ukraine, but has (somewhat ambiguously) implied an intention to go to war to defend Taiwan. So the US declining to go to war to defend Ukraine is what you should have expected even if you also believed that the US would go to war to defend Taiwan.
These are disanalogous in that the US has not previously implied an intention to go to war to defend Ukraine, but has (somewhat ambiguously) implied an intention to go to war to defend Taiwan. So the US declining to go to war to defend Ukraine is what you should have expected even if you also believed that the US would go to war to defend Taiwan.