From what I’ve read, Putin surrounded himself with yes men who lied to him (or were afraid to tell him the truth) about the preparedness and morale of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, and the likely response of the Ukrainian government and people to a Russian invasion. That doesn’t seem rational to me, or if it’s somehow not irrational on an individual level, makes it a bad idea to model Russia as a rational actor as a whole.
That doesn’t seem rational to me, or if it’s somehow not irrational on an individual level, makes it a bad idea to model Russia as a rational actor as a whole.
Absent honest, safe, free speech, leadership’s map diverges more and more from the territory and then comes crashing back to reality when they drive off a cliff they thought was a highway.
A group of individuals behaving in their own rational self-interest can make very irrational, self-destructive group-level decisions, if the incentives the members have are perverse enough. I guess the idea itself is as old as the book(Moloch style religious arguments have existed since forever) but I somehow never thought about it from the lens of predictability, of being a part of the same consensus reality.
Everyone around Putin was shocked that he went to full war, because they all knew they were lying to him and it would be a disaster. He alone lived in a hall of mirrors. I assume he’s smashing a bunch of them as we speak.
Tbh I have a well documented bias toward overestimating opponents capacities. I think Putin’s actions makes a lot of sense considering the results of his previous wars and the general lack of (serious) responce from the West, but I agree his most recent speeches and actions do not strikes me as perfectly rational.
If he is to be believed as genuine, as interviewed by Oliver Stone in 2017 (see: The Putin Interviews), then his stated goals are prosperity and security for Russia. But he somewhat betrays another goal of his that he doesn’t explicitly state: He is concerned about his and his family’s prosperity and security, particularly after he leaves office. I do get the sense his stated goals are genuine but his unstated goals would override them if necessary. Not exactly revelatory nor a great insight to say that a politician is primarily concerned with saving their own skin but Russian politics strike me as even more dangerous and cut-throat than Western politics. The risks for him are likely much higher.
From what I’ve read, Putin surrounded himself with yes men who lied to him (or were afraid to tell him the truth) about the preparedness and morale of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, and the likely response of the Ukrainian government and people to a Russian invasion. That doesn’t seem rational to me, or if it’s somehow not irrational on an individual level, makes it a bad idea to model Russia as a rational actor as a whole.
Absent honest, safe, free speech, leadership’s map diverges more and more from the territory and then comes crashing back to reality when they drive off a cliff they thought was a highway.
A group of individuals behaving in their own rational self-interest can make very irrational, self-destructive group-level decisions, if the incentives the members have are perverse enough. I guess the idea itself is as old as the book(Moloch style religious arguments have existed since forever) but I somehow never thought about it from the lens of predictability, of being a part of the same consensus reality.
Everyone around Putin was shocked that he went to full war, because they all knew they were lying to him and it would be a disaster. He alone lived in a hall of mirrors. I assume he’s smashing a bunch of them as we speak.
Tbh I have a well documented bias toward overestimating opponents capacities. I think Putin’s actions makes a lot of sense considering the results of his previous wars and the general lack of (serious) responce from the West, but I agree his most recent speeches and actions do not strikes me as perfectly rational.
What’s he maximising? Population? Hectares? GDP? Respect?
The feeling you get when you manage to change history with your own country at Europa Universalis 4 ?
Is he a gamer?
The point is that anything maximises something , for an arbitrary something.
Games have well defined but arbitrary winning conditions. Life had a poorly defined but non arbitrary winning condition.
If he is to be believed as genuine, as interviewed by Oliver Stone in 2017 (see: The Putin Interviews), then his stated goals are prosperity and security for Russia. But he somewhat betrays another goal of his that he doesn’t explicitly state: He is concerned about his and his family’s prosperity and security, particularly after he leaves office. I do get the sense his stated goals are genuine but his unstated goals would override them if necessary. Not exactly revelatory nor a great insight to say that a politician is primarily concerned with saving their own skin but Russian politics strike me as even more dangerous and cut-throat than Western politics. The risks for him are likely much higher.