It looks like the different views are the predictions of models learned on different time scales. The outside view has a small learning rate, so it reflects the long time-scale features of your observation history (or your species’ history, if you’re using evolved intuitions) and habitual control policies. The inside view is forgetful, so it updates its beliefs a lot in response to recent evidence, and is more likely to diverge or oscillate than converge to true beliefs or low cost trajectories, relative to the outside view. This perspective doesn’t explain why the inside view would be systemically optimistic.
It looks like the different views are the predictions of models learned on different time scales. The outside view has a small learning rate, so it reflects the long time-scale features of your observation history (or your species’ history, if you’re using evolved intuitions) and habitual control policies. The inside view is forgetful, so it updates its beliefs a lot in response to recent evidence, and is more likely to diverge or oscillate than converge to true beliefs or low cost trajectories, relative to the outside view. This perspective doesn’t explain why the inside view would be systemically optimistic.