I’m surprised nobody mentioned seasonality. I hypothesize that the biggest reason is that as you start rolling into August and September the outdoors becomes less frequently too hot, leading to more outdoors activity. Similarly, temperatures that are too cold can drive people indoors as well.
We see a very similar pattern in the US as well. In the summer, it is typically southern states that get hit hardest with new cases. In the winter, it is the states farther north that see the worst surges per capita.
The thing we care about here is the actual weather in the UK over the last few weeks, not the average climate data. In the last few weeks there’s been a bit of a heatwave, and everything has been dry and sunny (at least, in London).
I’m surprised nobody mentioned seasonality. I hypothesize that the biggest reason is that as you start rolling into August and September the outdoors becomes less frequently too hot, leading to more outdoors activity. Similarly, temperatures that are too cold can drive people indoors as well.
We see a very similar pattern in the US as well. In the summer, it is typically southern states that get hit hardest with new cases. In the winter, it is the states farther north that see the worst surges per capita.
It’s possible that seasonality is a factor, but temperature doesn’t seem like it would be it. July and August are very similar temperatures in London, and both are slightly hotter than June.
The thing we care about here is the actual weather in the UK over the last few weeks, not the average climate data. In the last few weeks there’s been a bit of a heatwave, and everything has been dry and sunny (at least, in London).
Ah I see, thanks for the info