R fell from something like 1.4 to 0.7 in a week. If we would be talking about a change from 1.2 to 1.1 in a week basic immunity seems like a reasonable explanation. For the change we are seeing it doesn’t seem to be.
Could this be something of statistical a mirage? (and hopefully this is not too poorly expressed or thought out as it’s very much an off the cuff type thought. It’s also really just a slightly different statement of the above explanation.)
I don’t know if this hypothesis comes close to fitting with the reality in the UK but what if one is looking at general, aggregate statistics but the cases are largely in some “unique” sub populations.
If there were pockets where previously few people were infected, were taking their time (or were anti-vaccers) and then delta hit those areas. Previously COVID was spreading slowly in such areas. Now it starts spreading quickly. The aggregate measures suddenly turn up but as soon as those sub-populations start to look like the general population you see a very rapid drop in transmission and in the aggregate numbers.
Putting it a bit differently, is it maybe one of those devils in the details, but not necessarily a factor that we can really do much with other than note it needs to be kept in mind at times?
R fell from something like 1.4 to 0.7 in a week. If we would be talking about a change from 1.2 to 1.1 in a week basic immunity seems like a reasonable explanation. For the change we are seeing it doesn’t seem to be.
Could this be something of statistical a mirage? (and hopefully this is not too poorly expressed or thought out as it’s very much an off the cuff type thought. It’s also really just a slightly different statement of the above explanation.)
I don’t know if this hypothesis comes close to fitting with the reality in the UK but what if one is looking at general, aggregate statistics but the cases are largely in some “unique” sub populations.
If there were pockets where previously few people were infected, were taking their time (or were anti-vaccers) and then delta hit those areas. Previously COVID was spreading slowly in such areas. Now it starts spreading quickly. The aggregate measures suddenly turn up but as soon as those sub-populations start to look like the general population you see a very rapid drop in transmission and in the aggregate numbers.
Putting it a bit differently, is it maybe one of those devils in the details, but not necessarily a factor that we can really do much with other than note it needs to be kept in mind at times?