I wish I had recorded my thoughts the week before they removed most of their remaining restrictions. They were something like “only 20% of adults haven’t been vaccinated, they’re working down the age distribution, and they’re infecting as fast as the winter. At some point, they just have to run out of people.” I thus vaguely expected things to drop, especially as they had turned around before.
One, they’re just running out of susceptibles, two, a shorter serial interval means that everything up and down happens faster and the R value is likely not as higher as it would be if you did not take this into account, and three… a good bet has been to expect authorities to be wrong.
I wish I had recorded my thoughts the week before they removed most of their remaining restrictions. They were something like “only 20% of adults haven’t been vaccinated, they’re working down the age distribution, and they’re infecting as fast as the winter. At some point, they just have to run out of people.” I thus vaguely expected things to drop, especially as they had turned around before.
One, they’re just running out of susceptibles, two, a shorter serial interval means that everything up and down happens faster and the R value is likely not as higher as it would be if you did not take this into account, and three… a good bet has been to expect authorities to be wrong.