Isn’t “prevalence of infections … [rising] … in the week to July 24” completely consistent with the cases peaking on the 16th? Given people are infected for ~10 days, and cases were higher in the week to 24th than the equivalent period 10 days earlier.
Calculating the 10-day rolling average of cases* in the UK (from here) I think that the prevalence should have increased by ~10%. The prevalence increasing by 15% obviously suggests there was some affect of fewer people being tested but also cases are definitely declining. (Usually attributed to schools doing less testing rather than ‘freedom day’)
* cases calculated using a rolling 7-day average re-centered on each day to remove weekly seasonality
Isn’t “prevalence of infections … [rising] … in the week to July 24” completely consistent with the cases peaking on the 16th? Given people are infected for ~10 days, and cases were higher in the week to 24th than the equivalent period 10 days earlier.
Calculating the 10-day rolling average of cases* in the UK (from here) I think that the prevalence should have increased by ~10%. The prevalence increasing by 15% obviously suggests there was some affect of fewer people being tested but also cases are definitely declining. (Usually attributed to schools doing less testing rather than ‘freedom day’)
* cases calculated using a rolling 7-day average re-centered on each day to remove weekly seasonality