Here is an idea for a disagreement resolution technique. I think this will work best:
*with one other partner you disagree with.
*when your the beliefs you disagree about are clearly about what the world is like.
*when your the beliefs you disagree about are mutually exclusive.
*when everybody genuinely wants to figure out what is going on.
Probably doesn’t really require all of those though.
The first step is that you both write out your beliefs on a shared work space. This can be a notebook or a whiteboard or anything like that. Then you each write down your credences next to each of the statements on the work space.
Now, when you want to make a new argument or present a new piece of evidence, you should ask your partner if they have heard it before after you present it. Maybe you should ask them questions about it beforehand to verify that they have not. If they have not heard it before, or had not considered it, you give it a name and write it down between the two propositions. Now you ask your partner how much they changed their credence as a result of the new argument. They write down their new credences below the ones they previously wrote down, and write down the changes next to the argument that just got added to the board.
When your partner presents a new argument or piece of evidence, be honest about whether you have heard it before. If you have not, it should change your credence some. How much do you think? Write down your new credence. I don’t think you should worry too much about being a consistent Bayesian here or anything like that. Just move your credence a bit for each argument or piece of evidence you have not heard or considered, and move it more for better arguments or stronger evidence. You don’t have to commit to the last credence you write down, but you should think at least that the relative sizes of all of the changes were about right. I
I think this is the core of the technique. I would love to try this. I think it would be interesting because it would focus the conversation and give players a record of how much their minds changed, and why. I also think this might make it harder to just forget the conversation and move back to your previous credence by default afterwards.
You could also iterate it. If you do not think that your partner changed their mind enough as a result of a new argument, get a new workspace and write down how much you think they should have change their credence. They do the same. Now you can both make arguments relevant to that, and incrementally change your estimate of how much they should have changed their mind, and you both have a record of the changes.
Here is an idea for a disagreement resolution technique. I think this will work best:
*with one other partner you disagree with.
*when your the beliefs you disagree about are clearly about what the world is like.
*when your the beliefs you disagree about are mutually exclusive.
*when everybody genuinely wants to figure out what is going on.
Probably doesn’t really require all of those though.
The first step is that you both write out your beliefs on a shared work space. This can be a notebook or a whiteboard or anything like that. Then you each write down your credences next to each of the statements on the work space.
Now, when you want to make a new argument or present a new piece of evidence, you should ask your partner if they have heard it before after you present it. Maybe you should ask them questions about it beforehand to verify that they have not. If they have not heard it before, or had not considered it, you give it a name and write it down between the two propositions. Now you ask your partner how much they changed their credence as a result of the new argument. They write down their new credences below the ones they previously wrote down, and write down the changes next to the argument that just got added to the board.
When your partner presents a new argument or piece of evidence, be honest about whether you have heard it before. If you have not, it should change your credence some. How much do you think? Write down your new credence. I don’t think you should worry too much about being a consistent Bayesian here or anything like that. Just move your credence a bit for each argument or piece of evidence you have not heard or considered, and move it more for better arguments or stronger evidence. You don’t have to commit to the last credence you write down, but you should think at least that the relative sizes of all of the changes were about right. I
I think this is the core of the technique. I would love to try this. I think it would be interesting because it would focus the conversation and give players a record of how much their minds changed, and why. I also think this might make it harder to just forget the conversation and move back to your previous credence by default afterwards.
You could also iterate it. If you do not think that your partner changed their mind enough as a result of a new argument, get a new workspace and write down how much you think they should have change their credence. They do the same. Now you can both make arguments relevant to that, and incrementally change your estimate of how much they should have changed their mind, and you both have a record of the changes.