meta but why argue about this if there is high confidence that serological data will determine things one way or another over the next week or two? Is there decision relevant leverage?
I don’t know how this would work. Trading on info always seems great until it comes time to actually do it. eg you get actual inside knowledge that suggests a trade, but wait, how do you know whether this inside knowledge is sufficiently leaked that it is priced in?
One benefit is that it is a good chance for training. We have a complicated real world question were the answer and even the best way of approaching the answer are currently unknown, but we will know the answer soon. Making predictions and recording the reasoning will allow for retrospectives.
meta but why argue about this if there is high confidence that serological data will determine things one way or another over the next week or two? Is there decision relevant leverage?
If you can predict the result of the data ahead of time, that seems very important for making decisions (eg. predicting stock market moves).
I don’t know how this would work. Trading on info always seems great until it comes time to actually do it. eg you get actual inside knowledge that suggests a trade, but wait, how do you know whether this inside knowledge is sufficiently leaked that it is priced in?
Many LW people have now taken the view that the market is not efficient when it comes to black swan events.
I’m having trouble imagining a concrete scenario where it would be possible to use this information to gain an advantage.
Whether or not a published paper has a hypnothesis that’s true or not true is a known unknown and not a unknown unknown or a black swan.
The idea is that the context surrounding this pandemic is unique.
Will all the black swam ETFs (like taleb assistant one universa) make it more efficient in that direction?
One benefit is that it is a good chance for training. We have a complicated real world question were the answer and even the best way of approaching the answer are currently unknown, but we will know the answer soon. Making predictions and recording the reasoning will allow for retrospectives.