Yes, [comparing the evidence against the theory to the evidence for it is] what I’m trying to do here.
It looks more like you listed all the evidence you could find for the theory and didn’t do anything else.
Although you can have problems of self-selection and bias, when you’ve got big data like this you tend to trust it more.
I don’t think this is actually how selection effects work.
You’d expect to see people to many severe cases amongst people who travelled for business a lot in January and February.
Those people are less famous so you wouldn’t necessarily hear about them.
I don’t quite understand what you’re saying here.
That the asymptomatic rate isn’t all that high, and in at least one population where everybody could get a test, you don’t see a big fraction of the population testing positive.
It looks more like you listed all the evidence you could find for the theory and didn’t do anything else.
That was precisely my ambition here—as highlighted in the title (“The case for c19 being widespread”). I did not claim that this was an even-handed take. I wanted to consider the evidence for a theory that only very few smart people believe. I think such an exercise can often be useful.
I don’t think this is actually how selection effects work.
The professor acknowledges that there are problems with self-selection, but given that there are very specific symptoms (thousands of people with loss of smell), I don’t think that selection effects can describe all the the data. Then he just argues for the Central Limit Theorem.
That the asymptomatic rate isn’t all that high, and in at least one population where everybody could get a test, you don’t see a big fraction of the population testing positive.
There’s no random population wide testing antibody testing as of yet.
It looks more like you listed all the evidence you could find for the theory and didn’t do anything else.
I don’t think this is actually how selection effects work.
Those people are less famous so you wouldn’t necessarily hear about them.
That the asymptomatic rate isn’t all that high, and in at least one population where everybody could get a test, you don’t see a big fraction of the population testing positive.
That was precisely my ambition here—as highlighted in the title (“The case for c19 being widespread”). I did not claim that this was an even-handed take. I wanted to consider the evidence for a theory that only very few smart people believe. I think such an exercise can often be useful.
The professor acknowledges that there are problems with self-selection, but given that there are very specific symptoms (thousands of people with loss of smell), I don’t think that selection effects can describe all the the data. Then he just argues for the Central Limit Theorem.
There’s no random population wide testing antibody testing as of yet.