Shut up and multiply by the payoff, and act on the expected value, not the probability.
but believing that Heaven’s army is at your back would increase your chances?
When you have decided what to do, do it 100%. Don’t put in 50% effort because you think there’s only a 50% chance of success. That is like the fallacy discussed here of guessing whether the red or the blue light will turn on next. If red is more frequent than blue and each event is independent, then you should guess red every time. When you are uncertain what to do, the rational thing to do is to go wholeheartedly for whichever choice seems, however uncertainly, to be the best.
Shut up and multiply by the payoff, and act on the expected value, not the probability.
When you have decided what to do, do it 100%. Don’t put in 50% effort because you think there’s only a 50% chance of success. That is like the fallacy discussed here of guessing whether the red or the blue light will turn on next. If red is more frequent than blue and each event is independent, then you should guess red every time. When you are uncertain what to do, the rational thing to do is to go wholeheartedly for whichever choice seems, however uncertainly, to be the best.