What’s interesting is that studies which offered significant monetary incentives have seen less probability matching and some researchers have thought that it might simply be an artifact of bored undergrads who don’t care about getting the answer right, pattern recency effects (like the gambler’s fallacy since all the experiments use frequency over a sequence as their measure of probability). Here we have what looks like probability matching with monetary incentives 6-7 orders of magnitude greater than what is used in the lab and it is probability matching with subjective probability which would eliminate any gambler’s fallacy effect.
What’s interesting is that studies which offered significant monetary incentives have seen less probability matching and some researchers have thought that it might simply be an artifact of bored undergrads who don’t care about getting the answer right, pattern recency effects (like the gambler’s fallacy since all the experiments use frequency over a sequence as their measure of probability). Here we have what looks like probability matching with monetary incentives 6-7 orders of magnitude greater than what is used in the lab and it is probability matching with subjective probability which would eliminate any gambler’s fallacy effect.