Not only does it not predict such large swings it also doesn’t fit with the fact that after such a swing (which occurs rapidly) he then gets a slow downward trend. I pointed this out to the moderators a while ago and so I have a record of how rapid some of the changes were:
These aren’t the only examples, but simply the most blatant
Based on this evidence I assign an extremely high credence that some form of karma abuse is going on with someone using multiple accounts (approximately 90% certain). I assign an 80% chance that this person is doing so deliberately to upvote comments which are seen at odds with “liberal” politics in some form. I assign a slightly over 50% chance that AA is doing this himself. The fact that it took until now for him to address such concerns despite the fact that others have mentioned them is not positive. After AA himself, I assign the next most likely individual to be Eugine for obvious reasons.
Not only does it not predict such large swings it also doesn’t fit with the fact that after such a swing (which occurs rapidly) he then gets a slow downward trend. I pointed this out to the moderators a while ago and so I have a record of how rapid some of the changes were:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ls5/if_you_can_see_the_box_you_can_open_the_box/c1kf was at −9 within 8 hours of being posted, 12 hours later or so it was at +4. Note that it has now reverted to +0.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ln8/february_2015_media_thread/bx5u was at −5, then within 24 hours went to +6 and is now +3.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/lli/open_thread_jan_26_feb_1_2015/bw6v was at −8 at 5 PM EST. At 7:10 EST it was at +6. In the same span http://lesswrong.com/lw/lli/open_thread_jan_26_feb_1_2015/bw6w was at −13 and went to +0. After the fact over the next few days, both those comments went into the deep negative. Similarly http://lesswrong.com/lw/lk7/optimal_eating_or_rather_a_step_in_the_right/bvmk was at −4, then went in the same 2 hour time span up to 3 and then went to 2 (so was left alone after that).
Curiously, within the same 2 hour time span as that set of rapid upvoting, two highly negative comments in support of A went through a similar swing with again a slow reversion over the next few days http://lesswrong.com/lw/lli/open_thread_jan_26_feb_1_2015/bw9t and http://lesswrong.com/lw/lli/open_thread_jan_26_feb_1_2015/bw7l
These aren’t the only examples, but simply the most blatant
Based on this evidence I assign an extremely high credence that some form of karma abuse is going on with someone using multiple accounts (approximately 90% certain). I assign an 80% chance that this person is doing so deliberately to upvote comments which are seen at odds with “liberal” politics in some form. I assign a slightly over 50% chance that AA is doing this himself. The fact that it took until now for him to address such concerns despite the fact that others have mentioned them is not positive. After AA himself, I assign the next most likely individual to be Eugine for obvious reasons.