If you just want to register predictions, I’ve already got a few set up on PredictionBook.com:
‘bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021’ —ivan
‘‘1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.’ —Bruce Wagner’
An actual prediction market is redundant—it’s a financial currency. If you think peoples’ probabilities are too low, you go long (buy/mine bitcoins), and if too high, then you short it (borrow for a period & sell).
I think he means a prediction market about propositions that do not themselves relate to bitcoins, which one can bet on with bitcoins.
Oh; that’s actually a good idea, the usual bootstrapping issues aside.
What Alicorn said =)
If you just want to register predictions, I’ve already got a few set up on PredictionBook.com:
‘bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021’ —ivan
‘‘1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.’ —Bruce Wagner’
An actual prediction market is redundant—it’s a financial currency. If you think peoples’ probabilities are too low, you go long (buy/mine bitcoins), and if too high, then you short it (borrow for a period & sell).
I think he means a prediction market about propositions that do not themselves relate to bitcoins, which one can bet on with bitcoins.
Oh; that’s actually a good idea, the usual bootstrapping issues aside.
What Alicorn said =)