As paper-clippers would still be visible astronomically can we conclude that UFAI isn’t very likely to be what wiped out previous Oases of life that got to our level of advancement? We really have to hypothesize very low chances of getting to human-level life or high non-visible means of stopping human-like things from spreading (nukes, bio terror, etc?).
Anyone have any favoured previous bottlenecks that we are likely to have dodged? None of the transitions life has gone through seems very special apart from the bottleneck of not getting self-replication started at all. I also don’t see earth-like planets being more rare than perhaps 1 in 50 million.
As paper-clippers would still be visible astronomically can we conclude that UFAI isn’t very likely to be what wiped out previous Oases of life that got to our level of advancement?
It is certainly the case that the fermi paradox seems provide little evidence in favor of, or against UFAI.
It is interesting to note L, the life time of the species or how long you can notice a species. For a dyson sphere blocking the light of a star we would expect it to block for the life time of the star. And if you are making that large you have to make all the other terms a lot smaller than the estimates there.
Or were you thinking of a more realistic equation?
I think that the “L” in the drake equation is silly; once a civ gets to the level of colonization, it will [EDIT] probably [/EDIT] colonize and last forever.
Even if thats the case it just means that L is dominated by probability any given civilization gets to the level of colonization. Plenty of civilizations could destroy themselves first.
A colonized civilization that still had contact between its various planets could still be wiped out by a plague or a sufficiently widespread war. Or they could commit mass suicide. Or they could be attacked and killed each and every one by another alien species. Why are you making such confident, general statements about a huge potential class of forms of life you have not met?
various planets could still be wiped out by a plague or a sufficiently widespread war.
The wave of expansion would travel faster than war, or at least at roughly the same speed. The dynamics of war in an infinite space seem to look like Hanson’s hardscrapple frontier—everyone trying to move into new territory as quickly as possible. I’m not sure what you mean by plague, but it would have to travel outwards and might struggle to catch the expansion.
Or they could commit mass suicide.
Possible, but that seems like a rather contrived possibility, especially if one is then going to invoke it to explain the Fermi paradox; for one galactic civ to commit suicide seems unlikely, but for billions of them to do it without a single exception is … well, there would need to be a convergent dynamic.
Or they could be attacked and killed each and every one by another alien species
As I said, the dynamics of war in space seem to be dynamics of expansion. You can just keep running away at .99c into fresh space, always expanding your empire and the amount of energy and matter you control. Of course, your enemy will do exactly the same in the opposite directions.
Why are you making such confident, general statements about a huge potential class of forms of life you have not met?
Well, if you make a statement of the form “at least one alien race will … ” you have a lot of chances to be right. Also, physics and game theory constrain them. Have you read Omohundro’s Basic AI drives?
As paper-clippers would still be visible astronomically can we conclude that UFAI isn’t very likely to be what wiped out previous Oases of life that got to our level of advancement? We really have to hypothesize very low chances of getting to human-level life or high non-visible means of stopping human-like things from spreading (nukes, bio terror, etc?).
Anyone have any favoured previous bottlenecks that we are likely to have dodged? None of the transitions life has gone through seems very special apart from the bottleneck of not getting self-replication started at all. I also don’t see earth-like planets being more rare than perhaps 1 in 50 million.
It is certainly the case that the fermi paradox seems provide little evidence in favor of, or against UFAI.
It could be several. The Drake Equation has a lot of terms in it.
Obligatory: http://xkcd.com/384/
Hmm I hadn’t looked at the Drake equation.
It is interesting to note L, the life time of the species or how long you can notice a species. For a dyson sphere blocking the light of a star we would expect it to block for the life time of the star. And if you are making that large you have to make all the other terms a lot smaller than the estimates there.
Or were you thinking of a more realistic equation?
I think that the “L” in the drake equation is silly; once a civ gets to the level of colonization, it will [EDIT] probably [/EDIT] colonize and last forever.
Even if thats the case it just means that L is dominated by probability any given civilization gets to the level of colonization. Plenty of civilizations could destroy themselves first.
A colonized civilization that still had contact between its various planets could still be wiped out by a plague or a sufficiently widespread war. Or they could commit mass suicide. Or they could be attacked and killed each and every one by another alien species. Why are you making such confident, general statements about a huge potential class of forms of life you have not met?
Well, let’s take each objection in turn:
The wave of expansion would travel faster than war, or at least at roughly the same speed. The dynamics of war in an infinite space seem to look like Hanson’s hardscrapple frontier—everyone trying to move into new territory as quickly as possible. I’m not sure what you mean by plague, but it would have to travel outwards and might struggle to catch the expansion.
Possible, but that seems like a rather contrived possibility, especially if one is then going to invoke it to explain the Fermi paradox; for one galactic civ to commit suicide seems unlikely, but for billions of them to do it without a single exception is … well, there would need to be a convergent dynamic.
As I said, the dynamics of war in space seem to be dynamics of expansion. You can just keep running away at .99c into fresh space, always expanding your empire and the amount of energy and matter you control. Of course, your enemy will do exactly the same in the opposite directions.
Well, if you make a statement of the form “at least one alien race will … ” you have a lot of chances to be right. Also, physics and game theory constrain them. Have you read Omohundro’s Basic AI drives?