space colonization is the only one that is so simple that even contemporary humans have a definite recipe for doing it that would probably work
Maybe. The nearest solar system—which would apparently take about a hundred years to reach—is over four light years away, and it isn’t even certain whether it has any planets. The closest planet that is actually known is apparently ten light years away, which would then take 250 years to reach. It’s obviously not impossible that we—or some future superintelligence—might manage to build a craft that survived that whole journey intact enough to continue with a colonization effort, but it doesn’t seem obviously possible either.
It seems fairly clearly possible because I can actually think of ways of getting there, including having all those tedious details filled in. Fleets of nuclear powered ships with 10-20 generations of humans on them could colonize thousands of worlds. The details of the nuclear powered ships and the technology to keep humans alive in space have been hashed out. Colonizing once there is tougher, we haven’t really done the bulk of the work on how to colonize a new solar system, but it doesn’t seem to require magical technology like nanotech to do it, just a large initial ship with a lot of infrasturcture on it and lots of fairly tedious planning and preparation.
Furthermore, I anticipate that technology will not stand still for the next milennium. What we can do now with difficulty, expenditure and much loss of life (colonizing the local stellar neighborhood) will, in 1000 years worth of technological development, be possible without much fuss. Nanotech, good AI systems, near-light-speed Von Neumann probes, and voila.
Maybe. The nearest solar system—which would apparently take about a hundred years to reach—is over four light years away, and it isn’t even certain whether it has any planets. The closest planet that is actually known is apparently ten light years away, which would then take 250 years to reach. It’s obviously not impossible that we—or some future superintelligence—might manage to build a craft that survived that whole journey intact enough to continue with a colonization effort, but it doesn’t seem obviously possible either.
It seems fairly clearly possible because I can actually think of ways of getting there, including having all those tedious details filled in. Fleets of nuclear powered ships with 10-20 generations of humans on them could colonize thousands of worlds. The details of the nuclear powered ships and the technology to keep humans alive in space have been hashed out. Colonizing once there is tougher, we haven’t really done the bulk of the work on how to colonize a new solar system, but it doesn’t seem to require magical technology like nanotech to do it, just a large initial ship with a lot of infrasturcture on it and lots of fairly tedious planning and preparation.
Furthermore, I anticipate that technology will not stand still for the next milennium. What we can do now with difficulty, expenditure and much loss of life (colonizing the local stellar neighborhood) will, in 1000 years worth of technological development, be possible without much fuss. Nanotech, good AI systems, near-light-speed Von Neumann probes, and voila.
Don’t send 1, send 1000.
Granted.