That some variant of Christianity turns up to be true ? Very, very, very low. Considering the size of the hypothesis space that includes Christianity (it includes about all other religions that ever existed, and most of the fictional ones, and many more you could think about), and the very low amount of evidence, it has to be counted in power of ten. If you consider the core of Christianity to be about 100 bits of information (and that’s a very low estimate), and that you have, what, 10 bits of evidence you’re left with a probability of 2^-90 of Christianity being true. Those numbers are very imprecise, but if anything, they give a probability higher of what it really is.
That some variant of “theism” is true, including the fact that the universe may be a simulation and the programmers/administrators of the simulation have “godlike” powers in it ? That I would give a much more reasonable chance of being true, but still no real evidence for it, so maybe a 10-20% probability.
That said, I find it really hard to give numbers for my those kind of believes which means… I need to become stronger !
That some variant of Christianity turns up to be true ? Very, very, very low. Considering the size of the hypothesis space that includes Christianity (it includes about all other religions that ever existed, and most of the fictional ones, and many more you could think about), and the very low amount of evidence, it has to be counted in power of ten. If you consider the core of Christianity to be about 100 bits of information (and that’s a very low estimate), and that you have, what, 10 bits of evidence you’re left with a probability of 2^-90 of Christianity being true. Those numbers are very imprecise, but if anything, they give a probability higher of what it really is.
That some variant of “theism” is true, including the fact that the universe may be a simulation and the programmers/administrators of the simulation have “godlike” powers in it ? That I would give a much more reasonable chance of being true, but still no real evidence for it, so maybe a 10-20% probability.
That said, I find it really hard to give numbers for my those kind of believes which means… I need to become stronger !