Have you tried tracing your reasoning that leads to this feeling, step-by-step, and see which step bumps the odds to 5%? For a programmer, the analogy would be “the output of this code is 5%, which is suspiciously high, let’s trace the program with a debugger and see which instruction is responsible”. More often than not, you find that there is a path through your code that you haven’t thought of before, or a step that seemed innocuous enough has a different effect from what you expected. Another standard technique is to work backwards from the final answer and see where it comes from.
Have you tried tracing your reasoning that leads to this feeling, step-by-step, and see which step bumps the odds to 5%? For a programmer, the analogy would be “the output of this code is 5%, which is suspiciously high, let’s trace the program with a debugger and see which instruction is responsible”. More often than not, you find that there is a path through your code that you haven’t thought of before, or a step that seemed innocuous enough has a different effect from what you expected. Another standard technique is to work backwards from the final answer and see where it comes from.