Again, we have to be clear about the question. But if it’s “what proportions of versions of me are likely to be in a large universe”, then the answer is close to 1 (which is the SIA odds). Then you update on your birthrank, notice, to your great surprise, that it is sufficiently low to exist in both large and small universes, so update towards small and end up at 50:50.
So what you are saying, is, before one knows his birth rank, one should assume infinite universe? This does actually corresponds to evidence about universe size, but not about human population size.
Again, it’s what question you’re asking. “If a copy of me existed, would it be more likely to exist in small universe or in an infinite one” has a pretty clear answer :-)
Again, we have to be clear about the question. But if it’s “what proportions of versions of me are likely to be in a large universe”, then the answer is close to 1 (which is the SIA odds). Then you update on your birthrank, notice, to your great surprise, that it is sufficiently low to exist in both large and small universes, so update towards small and end up at 50:50.
So what you are saying, is, before one knows his birth rank, one should assume infinite universe? This does actually corresponds to evidence about universe size, but not about human population size.
Again, it’s what question you’re asking. “If a copy of me existed, would it be more likely to exist in small universe or in an infinite one” has a pretty clear answer :-)